Step by step
The question
Question: A forest has 3000 trees and loses 4% every 5 years.
Write the model.
1 Find the start
t is the time in years.
We call the number N.
At the start no time has passed: t = 0.
Then the number is 3000.
That is the start.
2 Find the factor
Every 5 years, 4% of the number is lost.
What is left is 100% take away 4%: 96%.
Percent means out of 100.
So 96% is 96/100: 0.96.
So the factor is 0.96: every 5 years, we multiply by 0.96.
3 Make a small table
A small table: t = 0, 5, 10: one step is 5 years.
Each step, we multiply by 0.96: 3000 times 0.96 is 2880.
Times 0.96 again is 2764.8.
After two steps, 10 years, we multiplied by 0.96 two times.
Two times is the power 2: 0.96 squared.
4 Count the steps
One step takes 5 years.
At t = 5: 5/5 is 1 step.
At t = 10: 10/5 is 2 steps.
Like the table.
So in t years there are t/5 steps.
We divide the time by 5, the length of one step.
That is the power.
5 Write the model
Start times the factor, to the power t/5.
So the model is N = 3000 times 0.96 to the power t/5.
Careful!
Not 0.04.
That is the part that is lost.
We multiply by the part that is left: 0.96.
6 Check
Let's check the first 5 years the story way.
4% of 3000 is 0.04 times 3000: 120.
It loses 120: 3000 minus 120 is 2880.
The model at t = 5 gives 3000 times 0.96: 2880 too.
It works!
Let's look back.
First: find the start.
Then: find the factor.
Then: make a small table.
Then: count the steps.
Then: write the model.
Last: check.