Steply

A survey: men, 18 said yes and 6 said no; women, 14 said yes and 12…

Step by step, with the reason for every step · GCSE Maths Higher Paper 1 · GCSE Maths

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: yes or no?

18 men chose yes and 6 chose no.

14 women chose yes and 12 chose no.

One of the men is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose yes?

The line means given.

Given one of the men: we only look at the men.

P(yes | man) = men who chose yesall men

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability
| = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

18 men chose yes, 6 chose no.

18 plus 6 is 24.

14 women chose yes, 12 chose no.

14 plus 12 is 26.

The totals: 32 chose yes, 18 chose no, 50 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given man: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 18 chose yes, out of 24.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 18/24.

P(yes | man) = 1824

Careful!

The bottom is only the men: 24.

Not all 50.

Careful: not 1850 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 18 and 24 can be divided by 6.

That makes it simpler.

P(yes | man) = 18 ÷ 624 ÷ 6

So it is 3/4.

P(yes | man) = 34

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of man.

Both: 18 out of all 50.

Man: 24 out of 50.

P(yes | man) = P(both) ÷ P(man) = 1850 ÷ 2450

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 50s cancel: 18/24.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 1850 × 5024 = 1824 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(yes | man) = 34

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check your answer:

People were asked: yes or no? 21 men chose yes and 3 chose no. 14 women chose yes and 18 chose no. One of the men is picked at random. What is the probability they chose yes?
Show the answer
P(yes | man) = 78

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