Steply

Adults 30 tea 10 coffee, children 5 tea 15 coffee, P(coffee given…

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: tea or coffee?

30 adults chose tea and 10 chose coffee.

5 children chose tea and 15 chose coffee.

One of the adults is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose coffee?

The line means given.

Given one of the adults: we only look at the adults.

P(coffee | adult) = adults who chose coffeeall adults

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

30 adults chose tea, 10 chose coffee.

30 plus 10 is 40.

5 children chose tea, 15 chose coffee.

5 plus 15 is 20.

The totals: 35 chose tea, 25 chose coffee, 60 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given adult: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 10 chose coffee, out of 40.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 10/40.

P(coffee | adult) = 1040

Careful!

The bottom is only the adults: 40.

Not all 60.

Careful: not 1060 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 10 and 40 can be divided by 10.

That makes it simpler.

P(coffee | adult) = 10 ÷ 1040 ÷ 10

So it is 1/4.

P(coffee | adult) = 14

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of adult.

Both: 10 out of all 60.

Adult: 40 out of 60.

P(coffee | adult) = P(both) ÷ P(adult) = 1060 ÷ 4060

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 60s cancel: 10/40.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 1060 × 6040 = 1040 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(coffee | adult) = 14

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(coffee | adult) = 15

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