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Boys 12 cat 8 dog, girls 10 cat 20 dog, P(girl given dog)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: cat or dog?

12 boys chose cat and 8 chose dog.

10 girls chose cat and 20 chose dog.

One person who chose dog is picked at random.

What is the probability they are one of the girls?

The line means given.

Given they chose dog: we only look at the people who chose dog.

P(girl | dog) = girls who chose dogall who chose dog

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

12 boys chose cat, 8 chose dog.

12 plus 8 is 20.

10 girls chose cat, 20 chose dog.

10 plus 20 is 30.

The totals: 22 chose cat, 28 chose dog, 50 in all.

2 Keep only the given column

Given dog: only this column counts.

The others do not.

In it: 20 are girls, out of 28.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 20/28.

P(girl | dog) = 2028

Careful!

The bottom is only the people who chose dog: 28.

Not all 50.

Careful: not 2050 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 20 and 28 can be divided by 4.

That makes it simpler.

P(girl | dog) = 20 ÷ 428 ÷ 4

So it is 5/7.

P(girl | dog) = 57

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of dog.

Both: 20 out of all 50.

Dog: 28 out of 50.

P(girl | dog) = P(both) ÷ P(dog) = 2050 ÷ 2850

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 50s cancel: 20/28.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 2050 × 5028 = 2028 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given column.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(girl | dog) = 57

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(girl | dog) = 35

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