Steply

Boys 6 tea 14 coffee, girls 9 tea 11 coffee, P(tea given boy)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: tea or coffee?

6 boys chose tea and 14 chose coffee.

9 girls chose tea and 11 chose coffee.

One of the boys is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose tea?

The line means given.

Given one of the boys: we only look at the boys.

P(tea | boy) = boys who chose teaall boys

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

6 boys chose tea, 14 chose coffee.

6 plus 14 is 20.

9 girls chose tea, 11 chose coffee.

9 plus 11 is 20.

The totals: 15 chose tea, 25 chose coffee, 40 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given boy: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 6 chose tea, out of 20.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 6/20.

P(tea | boy) = 620

Careful!

The bottom is only the boys: 20.

Not all 40.

Careful: not 640 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 6 and 20 can be divided by 2.

That makes it simpler.

P(tea | boy) = 6 ÷ 220 ÷ 2

So it is 3/10.

P(tea | boy) = 310

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of boy.

Both: 6 out of all 40.

Boy: 20 out of 40.

P(tea | boy) = P(both) ÷ P(boy) = 640 ÷ 2040

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 40s cancel: 6/20.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 640 × 4020 = 620 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(tea | boy) = 310

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(tea | boy) = 413

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