Steply

Men 16 yes 4 no, women 12 yes 8 no, P(yes given man)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: yes or no?

16 men chose yes and 4 chose no.

12 women chose yes and 8 chose no.

One of the men is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose yes?

The line means given.

Given one of the men: we only look at the men.

P(yes | man) = men who chose yesall men

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

16 men chose yes, 4 chose no.

16 plus 4 is 20.

12 women chose yes, 8 chose no.

12 plus 8 is 20.

The totals: 28 chose yes, 12 chose no, 40 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given man: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 16 chose yes, out of 20.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 16/20.

P(yes | man) = 1620

Careful!

The bottom is only the men: 20.

Not all 40.

Careful: not 1640 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 16 and 20 can be divided by 4.

That makes it simpler.

P(yes | man) = 16 ÷ 420 ÷ 4

So it is 4/5.

P(yes | man) = 45

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of man.

Both: 16 out of all 40.

Man: 20 out of 40.

P(yes | man) = P(both) ÷ P(man) = 1640 ÷ 2040

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 40s cancel: 16/20.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 1640 × 4020 = 1620 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(yes | man) = 45

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(yes | man) = 23

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