Steply

Juniors 8 bus 12 car, seniors 6 bus 14 car, P(bus given junior)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: bus or car?

8 juniors chose bus and 12 chose car.

6 seniors chose bus and 14 chose car.

One of the juniors is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose bus?

The line means given.

Given one of the juniors: we only look at the juniors.

P(bus | junior) = juniors who chose busall juniors

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

8 juniors chose bus, 12 chose car.

8 plus 12 is 20.

6 seniors chose bus, 14 chose car.

6 plus 14 is 20.

The totals: 14 chose bus, 26 chose car, 40 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given junior: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 8 chose bus, out of 20.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 8/20.

P(bus | junior) = 820

Careful!

The bottom is only the juniors: 20.

Not all 40.

Careful: not 840 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 8 and 20 can be divided by 4.

That makes it simpler.

P(bus | junior) = 8 ÷ 420 ÷ 4

So it is 2/5.

P(bus | junior) = 25

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of junior.

Both: 8 out of all 40.

Junior: 20 out of 40.

P(bus | junior) = P(both) ÷ P(junior) = 840 ÷ 2040

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 40s cancel: 8/20.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 840 × 4020 = 820 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(bus | junior) = 25

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(bus | junior) = 25

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