Steply

Men 24 yes 16 no, women 18 yes 22 no, P(man given yes)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: yes or no?

24 men chose yes and 16 chose no.

18 women chose yes and 22 chose no.

One person who chose yes is picked at random.

What is the probability they are one of the men?

The line means given.

Given they chose yes: we only look at the people who chose yes.

P(man | yes) = men who chose yesall who chose yes

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

24 men chose yes, 16 chose no.

24 plus 16 is 40.

18 women chose yes, 22 chose no.

18 plus 22 is 40.

The totals: 42 chose yes, 38 chose no, 80 in all.

2 Keep only the given column

Given yes: only this column counts.

The others do not.

In it: 24 are men, out of 42.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 24/42.

P(man | yes) = 2442

Careful!

The bottom is only the people who chose yes: 42.

Not all 80.

Careful: not 2480 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 24 and 42 can be divided by 6.

That makes it simpler.

P(man | yes) = 24 ÷ 642 ÷ 6

So it is 4/7.

P(man | yes) = 47

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of yes.

Both: 24 out of all 80.

Yes: 42 out of 80.

P(man | yes) = P(both) ÷ P(yes) = 2480 ÷ 4280

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 80s cancel: 24/42.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 2480 × 8042 = 2442 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given column.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(man | yes) = 47

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(man | yes) = 712

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