Steply

Men 24 yes 16 no, women 18 yes 22 no, P(no given woman)

Step by step, with the reason for every step · Conditional probability · Probability

Step by step

The question

Question: People were asked: yes or no?

24 men chose yes and 16 chose no.

18 women chose yes and 22 chose no.

One of the women is picked at random.

What is the probability they chose no?

The line means given.

Given one of the women: we only look at the women.

P(no | woman) = women who chose noall women

P stands for probability.

The line stands for given.

P = probability, | = given

1 Make a table

One row for each group, one column for each answer, and the totals.

24 men chose yes, 16 chose no.

24 plus 16 is 40.

18 women chose yes, 22 chose no.

18 plus 22 is 40.

The totals: 42 chose yes, 38 chose no, 80 in all.

2 Keep only the given row

Given woman: only this row counts.

The others do not.

In it: 22 chose no, out of 40.

3 Write the fraction

So the probability is 22/40.

P(no | woman) = 2240

Careful!

The bottom is only the women: 40.

Not all 80.

Careful: not 2280 ✗

4 Simplify

Both 22 and 40 can be divided by 2.

That makes it simpler.

P(no | woman) = 22 ÷ 240 ÷ 2

So it is 11/20.

P(no | woman) = 1120

5 Check

Let's check with the rule: the probability of both, divided by the probability of woman.

Both: 22 out of all 80.

Woman: 40 out of 80.

P(no | woman) = P(both) ÷ P(woman) = 2280 ÷ 4080

Dividing by a fraction: flip it and multiply.

The 80s cancel: 22/40.

The same.

So the answer is right!

= 2280 × 8040 = 2240 ✓

Let's look back.

First: make a table.

Then: keep only the given row.

Then: write the fraction.

Then: simplify.

Last: check.

Answer
P(no | woman) = 1120

Your turn

Try this one yourself, then check:

Show the answer
P(no | woman) = 37

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